ON NOVEMBER 21ST President Joe Biden carried out one of many extra peculiar presidential duties. Upon his return from the COP27 climate summit in Egypt, Mr Biden pardoned the 2 Thanksgiving turkeys in an annual ceremony that has been a practice since Ronald Reagan’s days in workplace. The spared specimens are despatched to farms or universities, the place they’re left in peace for the remainder of their pure lives.
Such clemency seems to be beneficiant in a time of sky-high inflation. Meals costs have risen sharply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this yr. In October meals inflation reached 11% in contrast with a yr earlier, the best charge since 1981. Though all foodstuffs have been affected, the value of turkey meat in America has soared by 17% in contrast with a yr in the past.
The worth spike is the results of an aggressive pressure of avian influenza, which has triggered a drop in turkey provide. And swapping the turkey for a smaller chook on the Thanksgiving desk wouldn’t assist, as all poultry breeds have been affected. Some 50m birds have been both killed by the virus or pre-emptively culled. The worst outbreak is in Iowa, the place round 15.5m birds have been affected (see right-hand chart). Neighbouring Minnesota, America’s largest turkey provider, which rears about 40m of the birds annually, can be contending with the epidemic. It has put an already-tight turkey market below extra strain, after farmers diminished their output in response to low costs 5 years in the past.
That will come again to chew them. This yr’s lowest wholesale worth for turkey—$1.39 per pound ($0.63 per kg)—recorded in January, was nonetheless “the best seasonal quantity ever recorded”, says Russ Whitman of Urner Barry, a analysis outfit monitoring the poultry market. The agency says that frozen-wholesale turkeys presently price round $1.85 per pound, one other document excessive: final yr companies paid simply $1.43. They are going to be passing on a few of that extra price to customers. This week, common wholesale costs for recent “Toms”, the large male birds usually bought for vacation feasts, are anticipated to achieve $2.22 per pound. Giving thanks might show to be pricey this yr. ■
