On November fifth America will decide its subsequent president, in addition to the Home of Representatives and a 3rd of the Senate. The Economist will publish reside outcomes and evaluation protecting each race. Examine again right here quickly after first polls shut at 6pm EST / 11pm GMT to see in real-time what number of votes Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are choosing up, and which ones will win the White Home, in addition to which get together will management the 2 chambers of Congress.
Earlier than then, this web page gives a information for what to look out for forward of the election. Elsewhere, our each day up to date election forecasts calculate every presidential candidate’s probabilities of successful, and who may take the Home and the Senate. Our poll tracker rounds up the most recent presidential polls. And The US in brief, our each day replace delivered by publication, offers you all of the election tales that matter.
What to observe
This yr, given massive numbers of individuals have voted early, many anticipate the counting shall be gradual. Officers, nonetheless, insist that poll tallying shall be sooner than in earlier years. The outcomes could possibly be recognized only a few hours after polls shut throughout the nation—as they have been for seven of the previous ten elections (see chart). Or they might take days to develop into clear.
The primary states to conclude voting shall be on the east coast. Six states, together with the important thing battleground of Georgia, will end voting statewide at 7pm EST. By 8pm, 19 extra states can have joined them and a flurry of knowledge shall be printed. Readers ought to train warning: little of substance shall be revealed at this stage of the night time, until the election is a landslide.
In some states, the place one candidate is closely favoured, the election end result shall be referred to as nearly instantly. Except there’s a main upset or a putting pattern, these calls could not say a lot in regards to the election general. The absence of a name could also be extra informative: it could point out that an anticipated landslide has not occurred, as an illustration.
The ultimate end result will most likely come right down to seven key states. Of these, Georgia and Michigan could be the quickest to depend. North Carolina can be historically fast to depend however could expertise disruption resulting from Hurricane Helene.
Others might nicely be slower. Pennsylvania is not going to begin processing tens of millions of postal ballots till the morning of election day. Arizona and Nevada, within the west, end voting later that day and take longer to depend their mail-in ballots, that are well-liked in each states. Nevada accepts and counts ballots which arrive after election day, too (though these are unlikely to flip the state).
Read more about what to observe on the night time, and within the days that observe.
What are the candidates’ paths to victory?
Pennsylvania is the most important state for each candidates. (Mr Trump received Pennsylvania in 2016, however it flipped to Joe Biden in 2020.) In response to our forecast mannequin, as of November 4th, Ms Harris wins in 92% of our simulations when she takes the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes; Mr Trump wins in 88%.
Mr Trump has even higher odds when he wins Michigan (95%), however he has extra various routes to the presidency with out Michigan than with out Pennsylvania. Different swing states are much less influential: Ms Harris and Mr Trump win the election in solely 71% and 67% of simulations, respectively, after they win Nevada, a state with solely six electoral votes.
The most probably final result—occurring in 19% of our simulated elections on November 4th—is that Mr Trump will win all seven swing states and go on to win the presidency. The second-most probably is the precise reverse: our mannequin gave Ms Harris a 9% likelihood of sweeping the seven. The third would give the entire swing states besides Nevada to Mr Trump—that may be a repeat of the 2016 end result. However primarily based on all of our mannequin’s eventualities, the race is a toss-up: neither candidate has a lead large enough to offset the form of polling errors seen in earlier presidential elections.
