How many Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine?

Learn extra of our latest protection of the Ukraine war.

ESTIMATES FOR what number of Russian troopers have been despatched to their deaths in Ukraine are laborious to return by. Probably the most complete—by Mediazona and Meduza, two impartial Russian media shops—makes use of public obituaries and official inheritance information to create an estimated demise toll. The final time The Economist reported on their research, in July 2023, the determine was between 40,000 and 55,000. It has stored climbing sharply. Our 5 charts beneath illustrate the most recent findings, launched on February twenty fourth.

Begin with the general determine. Based on the brand new research, the Russian demise toll has jumped to 66,000-88,000 as of December thirty first 2023. That estimate falls inside the vary of latest tallies by Western intelligence businesses: the most recent estimate by Britain’s Ministry of Defence stood at 70,000. Officers in America suppose it might be as excessive as 120,000 (see chart 1).

The info will also be seen by week (see chart 2). This exhibits notable spikes in Russian losses throughout the starting and fruits of Ukraine’s counter-offensive in 2023, and vital losses final winter, throughout the battle for Bakhmut. These knowledge don’t embrace the variety of troopers who’re lacking or those that have been badly wounded in fight. Our calculations, based mostly on leaked paperwork from America’s defence division, counsel that round three to 4 Russian troopers are most likely wounded for each one killed in battle. (The ratio of wounded-to-killed Ukrainian troopers is way increased, between six and virtually eight.) The newest demise depend would indicate that someplace between 290,000 and 460,000 Russian troopers had been out of motion by the top of 2023—much like estimates of Russia’s complete invading power in February 2022.

Our third chart provides a breakdown of the varieties of Russian troopers who’re dying in Ukraine. (This solely makes use of troopers who had been recognized by identify, which is roughly half of the research’s estimated demise toll.) Though a lot has been fabricated from Russia’s use of convicts and private military companies (PMCs), these troopers seem to account for a minority of deaths. Lower than 19% of the recognized troopers had been convicts, and round 6% belonged to a PMC. By comparability, some 25% had been in common navy models.

Troopers aged between 35 and 39 have the very best demise toll, with an estimated 15,000 to 17,000 killed since 2022. However as a share of the male inhabitants, these aged between 25 and 29 have skilled the very best losses. The info counsel that greater than 1% of all Russian males aged between 20 and 50 might have both been killed or severely wounded in Ukraine because the begin of the full-scale battle.

Our last chart places these numbers into historic context. By April 2023 Russia had already misplaced extra troopers by invading Ukraine than it had in all its mixed earlier wars since 1945. By January deaths had roughly doubled. Based on RUSI, a think-tank, the Kremlin believes that the present ratio of personnel attrition could be sustained till the top of 2025.

The research by Mediazona and Meduza solely covers Russia. American officers in August reckoned the variety of Ukrainian troopers killed since 2022 stood at 70,000, however estimates range. The confirmed demise toll for Ukrainian civilians is effectively over 10,000, with the true complete believed to be far increased. The info present a bleak perception into the big toll of Russia’s invasion. Mr Putin seems undeterred by the blood on his fingers, whether or not from enemy ranks or Russia’s personal.■