ON THE SURFACE it seems fairly baffling. Within the yr since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s diplomatic resilience has left many wringing their fingers. Sergei Lavrov, the nation’s overseas minister, went on a attraction offensive throughout varied international locations; Vladimir Putin, the president, welcomed China’s leader in March. In a single sense Russia can rightly boast about strengthening diplomatic ties. Information revealed in March by EIU, our sister firm, confirmed that the variety of international locations actively condemning Russia had fallen since its earlier evaluation a yr in the past (see map). However these international locations are of little real use to Mr Putin and his warmongering.
EIU considers whether or not and the way governments have supported Russia’s actions or echoed its narratives—for instance by avoiding calling the conflict an “invasion”. It finds that seven international locations have moved into the Russia-leaning camp—these that are pleasant in the direction of Russia even when they don’t brazenly endorse its conflict—since final yr (see chart). Some, like South Africa, have been initially impartial; others, comparable to Botswana, have strayed from West-leaning. Eight extra international locations, most prominently Turkey, have gone from supporting the West into the impartial camp. General, the variety of international locations condemning Russia has dropped from 131 to 122 prior to now 12 months.
Fortuitously, in the case of worldwide relations, high quality trumps amount. Probably the most highly effective nation that Russia has managed to maintain candy is China, which stays Russia-leaning by EIU’s measures. However Xi Jinping, China’s chief, appears primarily targeted on poking the West and leveraging the battle to his benefit, reasonably than offering significant help to the conflict effort. Mr Xi has up to now rebuffed requests from Russia to supply help, comparable to supplying weapons or troops (although the West stays cautious of the chance). Equally, India, classed as impartial, is extra eager on benefiting from commerce offers than being compelled to decide on sides. Turkey, additionally listed as impartial, has elevated commerce with Russia whereas additionally supplying Ukraine with armaments, from missile-carrying drones to rockets and artillery shells.
Solely Belarus, Iran and North Korea (all classed as supporting Russia) have truly supplied the Kremlin with arms (in contrast with 31 international locations which have introduced weapon shipments to Ukraine). The remainder of Russia’s camp is made up largely of failing states and opportunists that may present little greater than abstentions on UN votes and different symbolic gestures of solidarity.
Collectively, Russia’s aspect and the impartial camp comprise a lot of the world’s inhabitants, however they account for simply one-third of world GDP. With few exceptions (particularly China) Mr Putin’s buddies are unlikely to have the ability to match the West’s fundraising capability for Ukraine (see chart). America alone has provided greater than $33bn-worth of coaching and tools since Russia’s invasion, and a few 50 different international locations have given or dedicated greater than $13bn in safety help as of September. On paper Russia has gained a worrying quantity of help over the previous yr. In apply, nevertheless, its friendships look hole. ■
