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QUESTION: I’ve been following Socrates for fairly some time. It actually appears to supply the long-term view fairly reliably. You mentioned it has taught you. So I take it that’s the reason it’s AI since you didn’t exactly code it to do these items?
WK
ANSWER: I created Socrates to watch every little thing. As a hedge fund supervisor, I might see how every little thing was linked. Learn Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs for 1931 and it precisely described how a panic unfolds is led by a liquidity disaster the identical as when Russian bonds collapsed in 1998 creating the autumn of Lengthy Time period Capital Administration.
Any errors are mine personally within the interpretation. That’s what I imply by it has taught me so much over time. Quite a lot of purchasers simply depend on Socrates – not me personally. The arrays are most likely one of many essential elements. As soon as once more, it has nothing to do with my opinion. So many consumers get accustomed to it and apply their very own interpretations.
Right here is the array we printed in July and we had been touting the August/September interval all 12 months. We are able to see the violent thrust up after which down – the everyday panic however over two months. It will depend on the week it usually hits. It known as for a Directional Change in October adopted by one other in November after which December made a brand new excessive after which retreated.
Socrates has carried out a great job. As soon as once more, it isn’t me personally making these forecasts. As a human, we’re all topic to error. Socrates just isn’t excellent. The World Market Watch is an ongoing venture and I’m shocked at what number of totally different patterns it’s developing with. This demonstrates that complexity is an understatement. Beneath are the World Market Watch stories for the 1932 low. We are able to see that it isn’t excellent. When it’s saying a “New Sample Forming” it means it is a new sample not but within the database. The variety of patterns is approaching 100,000. However, it did decide the 1932 low accurately. Not every single day into that low. Thus, it isn’t a buying and selling device, however one thing to only warn you to concentrate. Nothing is ever INFALLIBLE.
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