How to read America’s early-voting numbers

FOR THE first time since August, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in The Economist’s statistical mannequin of America’s presidential election. Our newest forecast provides Mr Trump a 53% probability of returning to the White Home, up seven proportion factors previously week (see chart). Though the race stays roughly a coin toss, it’s now weighted barely in Mr Trump’s route. The shift in our mannequin displays a gentle narrowing of Ms Harris’s lead in nationwide polls in the course of the previous month. State-specific polls printed previously week verify that Mr Trump’s place has strengthened barely within the plausibly decisive states.