To learn extra of The Economist’s information journalism go to our Graphic Detail web page.
ROCKETS, BULLETS and shells have been Vladimir Putin’s weapons of alternative in Ukraine. In the remainder of Europe, Russia’s president has resorted to tightening the gas taps. Russia used to provide 40-50% of the EU’s natural-gas imports—a reliance that meant Mr Putin’s struggle on his neighbour wreaked havoc on vitality markets. Amid fears of a scarcity, the EU set a goal in August to cut back natural-gas consumption by 15% over the winter (it lately introduced this is able to stay in place for the following 12 months, too). Information launched in late March by Bruegel, an financial think-tank in Brussels, confirmed that it met its preliminary goal (see chart). Gasoline demand from the start of December 2022 to the tip of February 2023 was 16% decrease than the typical for that interval between 2019 and 2021. However was this a product of fine European planning, or a fortunately mild winter? To search out out, The Economist constructed a statistical mannequin.
Demand for fuel over the darkish winter months is normally greater than double the demand over the summer time. If temperatures fall by simply 1℃, the typical particular person in Europe will enhance their day by day vitality consumption by round 1.2kWH, or 4.6% of the day by day common for the yr. For a lot of the continent, this winter was hotter than current years’, that means that some discount in fuel consumption from the norm would have been anticipated, whatever the struggle within the east.
We educated our mannequin to foretell the day by day common fuel demand per particular person for 26 international locations (Britain and all EU member states besides Malta and Cyprus, which use little or no fuel), for every winter month between January 2013 and February 2022. After the mannequin had discovered the connection between temperatures and fuel demand, we gave it actual temperatures from this winter and requested it to foretell how fuel utilization might need performed out had Russia not sparked an vitality disaster.
The mannequin confirmed that temperatures alone clarify solely round a 3rd of the true discount in fuel demand this winter. After accounting for the climate, Europeans nonetheless lowered their fuel use by round 12%. In absolute phrases, the Netherlands, Britain and Germany in the reduction of by probably the most: fuel utilization per particular person was 24% decrease within the Netherlands, 18% decrease in Britain and seven% decrease in Germany, in contrast with predicted ranges.
A lot of this was due to rising prices. In December fuel payments for European households had been up by 60% in contrast with the yr earlier than—Britain, Germany and the Netherlands had been among the many most affected. Because of this, many households and companies scaled again their vitality use. Some industrial operations switched to utilizing oil as a substitute of fuel, and energy-intensive merchandise that will usually be produced within the bloc had been imported as a substitute. Vitality effectivity additionally performed a small function. The Worldwide Vitality Company estimates that enhancements to buildings’ vitality efficiency, in addition to boiler replacements and the set up of warmth pumps, accounted for a 1.2% discount in fuel use final yr.
A number of the discount is likely to be sustainable for future years. However drastic cutbacks or a change to dirtier gasoline alternate options are more likely to come at a value to the economic system, the setting and folks’s well being (our previous analysis has predicted a pointy rise in winter deaths related to excessive vitality costs). Putin’s grip on Europe might look weaker than anticipated. However the continent wants long-term options to ease its tight vitality provide.■
