My Warning from 2014 | Armstrong Economics

In an interview on Could 11, 2014, I defined on USAWatchdog that confidence always outweighs reality. “It’s principally what you consider. There have been all kinds of research on fundamentals that say if rates of interest go up, shares go down.  It’s merely not true.  The inventory market has by no means peaked with rates of interest twice in historical past.  When you assume you’ll make 25% available in the market, you’ll pay 10% curiosity; however in case you actually assume the market is just going to go up 10%, you received’t pay 10%.  So, it’s at all times the distinction between what you consider and actuality.”

The individuals have misplaced all confidence in authorities. We’ve heard rumors of a “tender touchdown” from the Fed for the previous yr, however the state of affairs continues to worsen. Washington maintains that every little thing is steady as banks proceed to fail and inflation rages on. There may be no worth stability when battle is at play. Biden simply launched his newest price range plan that no affordable individual would condone. I defined in 2014 that nice empires all come crashing down after piling on huge debt. Individuals consider hyperinflation would trigger such a state of affairs, however debt is the most important participant. As soon as the federal government accumulates monumental debt, it targets its residents aggressively. That’s what we’re seeing at the moment.

So the place do you have to put your cash? I stated in 2014: “One of many primary questions I get on a regular basis is the place do I put my cash?  If the banks can simply take no matter they need now, there can be bail-ins moderately than bail-outs. Persons are afraid.  What do you do with the money?  So, persons are shopping for issues like actual property and shares, simply making an attempt to get cash out of the banking system.” That sentiment is constant and the newest CPI report even confirmed that shelter prices are rising on the highest fee since June 1982. Sensible cash has been making an attempt to flee the banks for years. There was no incentive till very just lately to park cash within the banks because of artificially low charges.

I additionally defined that the Fed would solely bail out deposits and had been asking establishments to vary their fashions. “Everyone is aware of I counsel a few of the massive establishments round, and I can let you know that they’ve instructed me instantly that the Fed went to them and instructed them they won’t be bailed out for proprietary buying and selling.  It is going to be solely on deposits.  That’s it,” I said. “The Fed has been going round telling them, ‘hey, you higher change your fashions.’  They don’t assume will probably be a flight to high quality because it was earlier than.  You purchase the long run (Treasuries) and that saves you.  They don’t assume that’s going to occur.  It’s fairly attention-grabbing. . . . It appears like the long run (Treasury bonds) goes to finish up beginning to rise.”

Sound acquainted to the present state of affairs? Individuals have moved from the general public sector into the personal sector. We’re nicely into a non-public wave, and the general public is not going to return to the general public sector for a few years to return.