REPUBLICANS CAN most likely expect to win a majority within the Home of Representatives within the midterm elections. The Senate, at present managed by Democrats with the thinnest of majorities, is a special story. Our forecast model provides Republicans only a 54% probability of victory. They should flip a Democratic seat—prospects embrace Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire—whereas keeping off Democratic challengers in North Carolina and Wisconsin.
However the greatest goal of all, for each events, could also be Pennsylvania. The swing state was received by Donald Trump in 2016, then Joe Biden in 2020, each occasions narrowly. Pat Toomey, a Republican, is retiring. A Democratic pickup would give Democrats some respiration room; they might hold management of the Senate even when they had been to lose, say, Nevada. A Republican victory may properly hand management of the Senate to the Republican Get together.