FirstFT: China could invade Taiwan next year, US Navy chief warns

Good morning. The top of the US Navy has warned that the American navy have to be ready for the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2024, as Washington grows more and more alarmed concerning the risk to the island.

Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of naval operations, stated the US needed to think about that China may take motion in opposition to Taiwan a lot before even the extra pessimistic warnings.

The controversy within the US about when China may invade Taiwan has intensified since Admiral Philip Davidson, then-head of Indo-Pacific Command, instructed Congress final 12 months that the Chinese language navy may take motion in opposition to Taiwan before 2027. Davidson’s warning was partly performed down on the time, however officers have intensified their warnings over the previous 12 months.

“Once we discuss concerning the 2027 window, in my thoughts that needs to be a 2022 window or doubtlessly a 2023 window,” Gilday instructed the Atlantic Council on Wednesday. “I don’t imply in any respect to be alarmist . . . it’s simply that we are able to’t want that away.”

Thanks for studying FirstFT Asia. Do you suppose China will invade Taiwan earlier than 2024? Why or why not? Inform me what you suppose at firstft@ft.com.— Emily

5 extra tales within the information

1. Succession battle begins after Truss quits UK premiership Rishi Sunak, former chancellor, has emerged as the early favourite to turn into Britain’s subsequent prime minister, after Liz Truss terminated a 44-day premiership marked by financial and political turmoil. Here’s how the leadership contest will work. Bookmark this link to observe the most recent developments.

2. Yen falls to lowest stage in opposition to greenback since 1990 The yen yesterday slipped previous ¥150 in opposition to the greenback for the primary time in additional than three many years as traders remained on alert for another intervention by Japanese authorities to prop up the foreign money. Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong’s Cling Seng index fell to its lowest level since the financial crisis after town’s new chief stopped wanting scrapping restrictions.

3. Russian jet ‘launched’ missile close to UK spy aircraft over Black Sea A Russian fighter aircraft released a missile close to an unarmed British spy aircraft patrolling worldwide air house over the Black Sea on September 29, UK defence minister Ben Wallace stated, in an incident that Russia later blamed on a “technical malfunction”.

4. Germany divided over sale of port terminal stake to China’s Cosco A row has broken out within the German authorities over whether or not to let Cosco, the Chinese language transport conglomerate, take a stake in a Hamburg container terminal, with chancellor Olaf Scholz in favour and a number of other ministries opposed on safety grounds.

5. Tencent steps up buybacks as share worth sinks Chinese language social media and gaming group Tencent has elevated share repurchases to spend more than $3bn this 12 months as the corporate’s inventory worth plumbs four-year lows.

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The times forward

Inflation knowledge Each Hong Kong and Japan will report their September client worth index inflation charge knowledge at the moment.

Steve Bannon sentencing Donald Trump’s former political adviser Steve Bannon is because of be sentenced for contempt of Congress after failing to adjust to a subpoena issued by the committee investigating the assault.

Finish of the China’s twentieth occasion congress The week-long congress is scheduled to finish on Saturday with a probable third five-year time period for Xi Jinping. Corporate China has largely been shut out of Xi’s occasion congress in contrast with years previous.

Girls’s World Cup group stage draw New Zealand will maintain a draw to on Saturday resolve the group stage matches for the ninth Girls’s World Cup, which can start in July 2023 at venues in Australia and New Zealand.

What else we’re studying

Renault and Nissan shut in on deal to save lots of partnership The 2 carmakers are close to a deal to save their dysfunctional alliance, which rescued the Japanese carmaker from near-bankruptcy 20 years in the past and was meant to be a mannequin for a way rivals labored collectively. The deal being mentioned would scale back Renault’s outsized voting rights, in accordance with six folks with data of the main points.

Biden goes it alone in his commerce assault on China Joe Biden’s transfer to impose semiconductor export controls is dangerous, and never only for apparent causes equivalent to direct Chinese language retaliation. A extra basic hazard is that the US, appearing largely with out allies, is stoking a major trade and tech conflict it may not at all times win, writes Alan Beattie.

India’s rice farmers on entrance line of water disaster Within the Nineteen Sixties, India’s “inexperienced revolution” heralded a surge within the manufacturing of staple crops, which helped forestall the famines that had beforehand blighted the nation. However the intensification of farming has led India to turn into among the most water-stressed countries in the world.

In reward of the lengthy and splendid sleep The irritating “smug sleeper” appears to have the ability to survive — thrive, even — on valuable little sleep. However “nine-hours-a-night” Jemima Kelly writes that scientific proof suggests she is smart to worth her shut-eye.

Is DeSantis a Trump with out the drama? Florida governor Ron DeSantis opted for a restrictions-light response to the Covid-19 pandemic that made him a conservative hero. Since then, he has harnessed a mixture of mind and calculated hostility to outsiders, elites and the media to turn into the potential standard bearer of the US’s populist movement.

Journey

Discover Arashiyama, one in all Kyoto’s high vacationer locations, with our new FT Globetrotter guide. Arashiyama is nicely value exploring for its pretty walks dotted with historic temples and gardens, in addition to one in all Japan’s most well-known and iconic bridges. It additionally occurs to be a mecca of Japanese classical literature.